WW 2.1 (North Koreans in Russia)

Once again, my 2024 bingo card is looking a bit more insane.  The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA the DPRK, and also not so democratic) sent troops to fight in Ukraine.  Or another way to put it, Russia bought North Korean soldiers to fight in their war against Ukraine.  Usually, one should be alarmed, but this has been common practice for thousands of years.  By that I mean using mercenaries.  Russia has already used mercenaries such as the Wagner Group, and Chechnya fighters in the Ukraine war.  If you want to read more on mercenaries in conflicts, check out this articles: history.com, britannica.com 

It is reported that North Korea sent approximately 12,000 - 15,000 soldiers to right on behalf of Russia in exchange for $200,000,000.00 and 700,000 tons of rice per month.  Oh and “Space tech”.  If I was to make an assessment on what “space tech” is, it would likely be materials needed for North Korea’s InterContinental Ballistic Systems program.  It is widely known that North Korea has some type of nuclear capability, just no real way to deliver it to their enemies.  If Russia provides the materials and support they need, North Korea actually becomes a threat to the west, disrupting the existing balance of power.  

image made with Grok 2

Honestly, from a strategic level, it is a solid trade for North Korea assuming I am right about what “space tech” means.  During the Korean War, the USA took an approach of “metal over meat” mentality.  Meaning, they would rather expend munitions and technology vs. expending personnel.  Human life is worth more in western countries vs. eastern countries historically speaking.  To this day, North Korean doctrine according to open source information would be to send wave after wave of troops with limited equipment, requiring their soldiers to pick up equipment from their fallen brethren to continue the fight.  AKA, they chose to be like the Tyrannids from Warhammer 40k and just yeet their soldiers into a meat grinder rather than lose equipment and technology.  12,000 soldiers would therefore be meaningless to Kim Jung Un (KJU) and his cronies, as they get a far greater strategic return on investment even if all 12,000 of those North Korean soldiers are sent to the forever yeet on the battlefield.  I highly doubt KJU would care if those 12,000 some odd souls remain on this plane of existence.  

image made with Grok 2

Russia will now have a steady stream of semi trained soldiers that they can expend without creating fuss on the homefront.  They took a page out of the USA forever wars playbook in the middle-east.  The US government realized that most folks do not care when a contractor dies, and there is no real obligation to report those deaths to the public like they do when a US soldier/sailor/marine/chairforce dude or dudette unfortunately gets wounded or killed in action.  This was a huge PR move that mitigated the pressure from the media (not that they do anything anymore really) and from the public.  If you look at Afghanistan for example, most people stopped caring about what was happening over there, and many people thought that it was “calm” in the region due to the lack of reported deaths and wounded.  In fact, it was quite the opposite.  In 2019, 10th Special Forces Group and their affiliate supporting units reportedly lost over 25 people.  Mind you, all deaths are not great, but a Green Beret or other special operations soldier is rare in comparison to conventional infantry units such as the 82nd airborne.  Afghanistan was still very much a “hot” warzone.  If you want more information, just go look at the reporting during 2019 and up to the pullout in 2021.  Anyway, Russia is not doing great PR-wise on the homefront.  Using your citizens as cannon fodder in a war with your neighbor is not a great look.  So having 12,000 - 15,000 DPRK soldiers to yeet into the grinder is a massive strategic win for Putin and the Russian military.  Noone really is going to miss a DPRK soldier.  The Russian Military does not likely have to pay them, does not have to report their deaths and again, nobody is going to miss them.  Putin has the reinforcements he needs, and the strategically right ones at that.  Great job learning from the US war machine…

Image made with AI

I have previously written on the brutal reality of the war in Ukraine.  That brutal reality equates to a massive jump in how conventional wars integrate modern (and cheap) technology such as commercially available quad copter drones.  If this war keeps going, I would not be surprised to see robots like Tesla’s Optimus fielded on the battlefield based on the success that drones are already having.  Please go check out the article.  

The Russians will likely not get a legion of armed Optimus robots to fight on their behalf.  But they now have somewhat of the next best thing.  12,000 - 15,000 DRPK metaphorical “drones” whose deaths will be as easily forgotten as an Optimus robot.  It's a sad waste of human life.  Hopefully peace can be brought to the region soon before me and the boys get drafted back in and have to do a combat drop on Moscow or the Suwalki Gap if this war escalates to other nations on Russia’s border.  

image made with AI





Stay frosty, 





AP1984





"Gary Neuman"

Gary is a former 35F Intelligence Analyst. He brings the intel analyst perspective to our team.

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